Posts Tagged ‘gambling’

by Ahmad Hassam

Economic growth of countries can also have a big impact on the overall currency market sentiment besides the interest rates. United States is the largest economy in the world. US economy is the key factor in determining the global currency market sentiment. US economic growth figures affect the major currency pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, CHF/USD and JPY/USD.

A strong economic expansion coupled with a healthy labor market tends to boost consumer spending in the country. This helps in selling the stuff produced by the local companies and businesses.

A country with a strong economy is in a better position to attract foreign investors. Foreign investment flowing into the country increases the demand for that currency. This increased demand causes that currency to appreciate against other currencies.

Some of the most important indicators of a country economic growth are: 1) Gross Domestic Product, 2) The unemployment rate and 3) The trade balance. Lets discuss these three economic indicators.

GDP: GDP measures the total good and services that are produced in a particular country in a one year. A healthy GDP growth rate figure usually adds a bullish sentiment to the currency of that country especially if it exceeds the market expectations. Always remember the markets tend to react more to surprises. The reaction can be positive or negative depending on the surprise. Actually we will be usually talking about the GDP growth rate whether the economy is expanding or contracting.

Unemployment Rate: A low unemployment rate is considered to be a positive for the countrys economy and its currency. The unemployment rate data reports the state of the labor market in the country. A low unemployment rate means almost all the consumers have jobs and they are willing to spend more. The more the consumer spends, the more the companies and businesses in the country sell. This generates more output and further expands the economy. The opposite is true for a high unemployment rate. High unemployment means the economy is in recession.

Trade Balance: Current account balance is very important for measuring the health of a particular economy. If a country exports more than it imports, the trade balance is in surplus. If the imports are more than the exports, the country will end up with a trade deficit. Trade Balance is the net exports in short. This is another widely watched economic indicator in fundamental analysis. Current account deficit must be balanced by the capital account surplus otherwise a balance of payment problem will ensue. Trade deficits are not good.

For example, suppose US import more from Europe. USD will have to be sold in order to buy Euros to pay for those imports. This will result in the depreciation of USD relative to the Euro and other currencies. The opposite is true in case of a trade surplus. USD will strengthen relative to Euro if US exports more to Europe as compared to its imports.

Geopolitical risk is also very important and can cause the currency of a country to move up or down relative to other currencies. Geopolitical risk refers to the risk of a countrys foreign or domestic policy affecting domestic social and political stability in another country or the region.

About the Author:
by Ahmad Hassam

How do you view the forex market is very important. Do you see it as a big mechanical matrix which is devoid of emotions? Most traders have a love hate relationship with the forex market. Most think that the market is either against them or for them.

At a particular moment in time, the market is emanating the emotions of currency speculators sitting on their trading desks or on their computers around the world. The truth is that forex market is just the compressed display of these emotions.

A market is like a big living organism made up of millions of cells. Each cell carries its own functions and interacts with other cells of the body keeping the living organism alive around the clock.

Knowing what the market thinks and how it thinks is crucial to trading success. A forex market comprises millions of participants acting out their perceptions and emotions.

Ultimately, you as the trader are dealing with other traders out there in the market. These traders can be big institutional players or an independent individual trader like you and me. You need to know what the other traders are thinking at anyone time.

What is the market sentiment? Market sentiment is simply what the majority of the market participants are perceived to be thinking or feeling about the market. Market sentiment is the most important factor that drives the currency markets.

Traders form their opinions based on emotions regarding their strengths or weaknesses relative to other currencies. Traders tend to act based on what they feel and think of certain currencies. Market sentiment explains the current actions of the market as well as the future course of action. Market sentiment sums up to the overall dominating emotions of the market participants.

Market sentiment is primarily based on the participating traders emotions. These emotions are one of the greatest factors in the determination of the currency exchange rate. One thing you should know is that market sentiment is not logical.

Market sentiment is like a fickle lover. It is capable of changing its mind based on new information that can upset the existing emotion. Market sentiment can be bearish, bullish or just plain confused.

If the majority of the market participants want to buy that currency, the market sentiment is bullish. If the majority wants to sell the currency, the market sentiment is deemed to be bearish. When most market participants are unsure of what to do at a particular moment, the sentiments end up being mixed up.

Understanding the current market sentiment and exploiting it with an appropriate trading strategy can help maximize your trading profits. If you can understand what the other traders are thinking and why the market is doing what it is doing, you will be in a better position to plan the entry and exit for your trade. In Part II of this article we will discuss what factors influence the market sentiment.

About the Author:
by Ahmad Hassam

There are hundreds of ETFs and HOLDRS covering key industry benchmarks such as the various Standard &amp Poor Indexes, Russell Indexes and the Dow Jones Averages or other less well known narrow based sectors.

You should know the major indexes that are either key benchmarks or have ETFs tied to them. For example SPY tracks the Standard &amp Poors 500 Composite Index and is the largest of the ETFs.

Standard &amp Poor: Standard &amp Poor (S&ampP) is the financial services segment of the McGraw Hill companies and has been providing independent and objective financial information, analysis and research for nearly 140 years.

It is also the provider of equity indexes and these S&ampP indexes are also used as the basis for wide variety of financial instruments such as Index Funds, Futures, Options and ETFs. Investors around the globe use S&ampP Indexes for investment performance measurement.

S&ampP 500 Composite is one of the most popular indexes in the global financial markets. Hundreds of companies around the world have licenses with the Standards &amp Poors for their index products. The influence and name recognition of S&ampP 500 is unparalleled. It is also used as a key benchmark for money manager performance.

The S&ampP 500 is a capitalization weighted index that tracks the performance of 500 large capitalization issues. S&ampP 500 represents more than 75% of the capitalization of the entire US Stock Market. Each year thousands of money managers have the single minded goal of outperforming the S&ampP 500.

The stocks in the S&ampP 500 are determined by a nine member committee in accordance with the general guidelines. 30 years back most of the stocks in S&ampP 500 were from the Industrial Sector. Over the years, the complexion of S&ampP 500 has changed. By 1970s, six of the top companies were from the Oil Sector. In 2000s, technology composed about one third of the capitalization of the index.

The other Standard &amp Poors indexes are the S&ampP Midcap 400 Index and it is based on 400 chosen domestic stocks. It is also capitalization based and measures the performance of the midsize companies of the US economy.

The S&ampP SmallCap 600 Index consists of 600 domestic stocks. These stocks are chosen for market size and liquidity. S&ampP SmallCap 600 is also capitalization weighted index and is of interest to institutional and retail investors. There are also sub-indexes based on these S&ampP Indexes.

NASDAQ: You will often hear the Nasdaq market being up or down on a given day in the media. NASDAQ Composite Index contains more than 4500+ companies representing a market capitalization of trillions of dollars.

There is another Nasdaq Index called the Nasdaq-100. NASDAQ-100 is composed of the top 100 nonfinancial companies in the Nasdaq Stock Market like Microsoft etc. It is a modified capitalization weighted index. The QQQ is based on the Nasdaq-100 Index.

About the Author:
by Ahmad Hassam

You should understand how to select stop orders to limit your potential losses and how to let profits ride. Managing risk and using systems that helps evaluate price changes is critical for a trader if he/she is to maintain a degree of profitability over time.

Managing risk should be your number one job. The descriptions of the types of stops and the pros and cons of each should help you make the right decisions for the different market conditions. Capturing as much profit as possible from winning trades should be your utmost goal.

You should know the various types of stop loss orders. You should also know where and when to place these stops. Predetermined stop loss orders help you conquer your emotions. Stops should be part of the trading system and included in your trading rules.

Set a stop objective. Weigh the risk/reward ratio before entering each trade. Stop orders can be placed close to the entry level when volatility is low. However, when the volatility is high, stop orders should be placed further from the entry level.

When entering a trade make sure you know where and why to put the stop order. Initially you will form an opinion based on your gut feelings that is substantiated by a trade signal.

However, you will undoubtedly get caught in the news driven price shock events. It makes the markets highly unpredictable in the short run. These news releases create price spikes that may make an adverse move against your position.

Stop orders can also be placed to enter positions. Stop orders that you place online if the market trades at a certain price, then the order is triggered and become a market order to be filled in by the next best price available. Stop orders are placed to protect against losses.

Buy stops are placed above the current market price and sell stops are placed below the current market price. Protective stops are used to offset a position and to protect against losses and against accrued profits.

Stops can be placed on a dollar amount per position. If you want to risk only $250 per $100,000 standard lot position then your stop loss will be placed 25 pips from your entry point. You can set a daily dollar amount on the loss limit.

Traders use 2-5% of the overall account size as their stop loss. Suppose your trading account size is $10,000. You can also use a certain percent of your overall account size as your stop loss. This comes out to be $200-$500.

Many traders tend to turn winners into losers as they get in the let it ride mindset. The trailing stop reduces the chance to let trades ride. Swing traders can use the automatic trailing stop. This makes the decision making process fully automated.

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How About ETFs?

Author: Ahmad Hassam
by Ahmad Hassam

ETFs mean Exchange Traded Funds. ETFs represent an ownership stake in a basket of underlying securities. This basket can represent a specific index like the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq 100, segment of market like the small cap, large growth stocks, sector like semiconductor, energy, travel or foreign currencies like Euro, Yen.

It can also comprise of bonds, gold, silver or other commodities. The value of the ETF is determined by the underlying securities. So you may be thinking this sound like a mutual fund.

ETFs can be brought and sold throughout the trading day like ordinary stocks. ETFs are different from the Mutual Funds in a number of ways. The unit price of ETF changes instantaneously unlike the Mutual Funds that are priced at the end of the trading day.

ETFs can be shorted, traded with a margin account and many trade options. There is no minimum for ETF purchases. ETFs can be traded using the market, limit and stop loss orders. So ETFs offer the diversification advantages of mutual funds and the flexibility of stocks.

Suppose you have a bullish opinion on the oil sector. After spending hours you will select the one company that you think is the strongest. You will have to analyze dozens of companies in the oil sector. One of the main advantages of ETFs is that they offer diversification.

ETFs provide you the benefit of diversification in the same way that mutual funds do to the small retail investors. You could choose the Oil Sector ETFs that would give you the advantage of mimicking some oil sector index. Instead of investing in a few stocks you have now invested in a particular sector just like investing in a mutual fund.

The key advantage that ETFs hold over mutual funds is that they can be sold or bought at anytime of the trading day. ETF prices keep on changing in relation to the underlying assets. However, mutual funds are priced only once at the end of each trading day and their NAV does not change throughout the next trading day.

Another main advantage of ETFs over mutual funds is the fees charged by each. A mutual fund charges management fees and can also charge upfront, backend or other sales loads. Expense ratios for ETFs on average are not more than 0.4%. ETF expenses are low because they are passively managed and generally follow an established index.

Foreign currency trading is not just for gamblers or commodity traders. Currency trading has become extremely popular among the institutional investors, big companies and hedge funds.

Foreign currency has become a respected asset classification and is so hot that now you can trade Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) on currencies. As with any other product there are advantages and disadvantages of trading ETFs.

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